The 2015 deck made predictions. This page keeps score. Every year after the Union Budget it re-grades the twenty-one preconditions — what moved, what stalled, and the year’s single most important number. This is the first edition; from next year, each item carries an arrow against where it stood.
The verdict
Eleven years on, the blueprint reads less like a proposal and more like a checklist the country has been quietly working through. The rails exist. What is still missing is not technology but the loop that connects them — and an autonomous institution to run it.
The 21 preconditions, re-graded
12 built, 8 partly built, and only 1 not yet built. For a citizen’s 2015 forecast, that is a remarkable hit rate — and a precise map of the work that remains.
- 1Agri zones by dominant cropbaseline
- 2A national coordinating agencybaseline
- 3Kisan Smart Cardbaseline
- 4Farm co-operatives (+ VB-GRa…baseline
- 5A new micro-credit policybaseline
- 6Independent soil-testing aut…baseline
- 7NAMP crop matching (EFCAS)baseline
- 8Mobile extension servicesbaseline
- 9E-scales linked to a databasebaseline
- 10RFID tamper-proof packagingbaseline
- 11Independent grading authoritybaseline
- 12Authorized dealer codesbaseline
- 13National Agri Exchangebaseline
- 14Fair prices (Swaminathan for…baseline
- 15Govt-mediated contract farmingbaseline
- 16Warehousing + online WMSbaseline
- 17Single-window tax at APMCsbaseline
- 18Abolish inter-state barriersbaseline
- 19GPS-based logisticsbaseline
- 20National farm insurancebaseline
- 21PDS re-organisationbaseline
Every item marked “baseline” this year. From the 2027 edition, these become movement arrows (↑ ↓ →) against the previous grade.
Three readings of the year
The year in markets
The rails are laid; the trade still runs local
e-NAM now spans 1,656 mandis, 1.80 crore farmers and ₹4.82 lakh crore of cumulative trade — the connected market the deck imagined, built. Yet most trade is still within a mandi, not across them: assaying trust, logistics and credit relationships keep produce local. The missing layer is decision support and trust, not another portal.
See live prices & arbitrage →The year in climate
The water budget tightened again
Chitradurga still draws about 144% of what its rain returns, and the monsoon keeps losing its rhythm. The encouraging counter-trend is demand-side: millets, carried by the 2023 International Year and Karnataka’s Raitha Siri, are slowly re-entering fields and plates — the evergreen test’s clearest win this year.
Run the evergreen test →The year in farmer income
Income kept growing — outside the grain basket
India held its place as the world’s largest milk producer, and horticulture output again outweighed all foodgrain. The income story remains an allied-sector story: diversification toward dairy, poultry, fruit and fish is what actually lifts a dry-district household — and steadies it against a failed monsoon.
Build the income mix →What to watch in 2027
The six dials worth turning
- 1Open API access to AgriStack for private and FPO apps — the difference between a registry and a platform.
- 2The VB-GRaM-G rollout from 1 July 2026 (formerly MGNREGA) — does the move to 125 days reach women workers?
- 3Whether the orchestrating role becomes a genuinely autonomous institution — the one structural piece still unbuilt.
- 4The legal-guarantee-for-MSP debate, and any shift toward deficiency payments and diversification incentives.
- 5Micro-irrigation coverage in the Central Dry Zone — the only durable answer to the groundwater ledger.
- 6e-NAM’s inter-mandi trade share — the real test of whether the national market is one market yet.
One email a year, after the Budget
The whole value of a scorecard is the streak. Get the next edition when it publishes — no other mail, ever.
Subscribe to the scorecard →A prediction is only worth as much as the willingness to be graded on it.